Nate Silver 538 Polls 2024 Results. In fact, it might still forecast harris to win hawaii. The model update suggests that trump has a 52.4% chance of winning the electoral college while harris has a 47.3% chance of prevailing, making trump the favorite in.
He is the author of “the signal and the noise: They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of rfk jr., and house effects.